New Delhi : Kaafi dino se mulk ki awam, aur siyasi partiyoun ko aam lok sabha intekhabaat ka intezaar tha. is ke liye mulk ki sabhi siyasi jamaatoun ne tayyariyan bhi shuru kar di the aur intekhaabi muhim ka aaghaz bhi kar diya tha. aur aise qiyaas lagaye ja rahe the ke mahe April ya May may aam intekhabaat munaqid ho saktae hai. unhi andesho ke beech election commission Sunil arora ne 17th lok sabha intekhabaat ki tawareekh aur intekhabi schedule ka elaan kiya .
Lok sabha intekhabat ka 11 april se aaghaz hoga, aur polling 11 april se 19 may ke darmiyan, jumla 7 marhalon may hogi. Pehla Marhala 11 april, dusra marhala 18 april, teesra marhala 23 april, Chawtha marhala 29 april, Paanchwa marhala 6 may, chatwaan marhala 12 may aur saathwan marhala 19 may ko hoga aur tamam marhaloun ke votes ki ginti 23 may kee jayegi.
11 April ko pehle marhale may 91 nishistoun ke liye 20 riyaston masalan Andaman nicobar, andhra pradesh, Arunachal pradesh, Aasam, bihar, chateesgarh. jammu and Kashmir , Lakshwadeep , maharashtra, Manipur , Meghalaya , mizorm, nagaland, Orissa, sikkim, telangana, tripura, uttar pradesh, uttarkhand, aur maghribi bengal may polling hogi.
*. 18 April ko dusre marhale may 97 nishistoun ke liye 13 riyaston masalan Aasam , bihar, chateesgarh, jammu and Kashmir , karnataka, maharastra, manipur, Orissa, pondicherri , tamilnadu , tripura, Uttarpradesh, maghribi bengal may polling hogi.
*. 23 April ko teesre marhalemay 115 nishistoun ke liye aasam, bihar, chhateesgarh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli , daman and diu, Goa , Gujrat, Jammu and Kashmir , karnataka, kerala, maharashtra, Orissa, uttar pradesh, maghribi bengal may polling hogi.
*. 29 April ko chouthe marhale may 71 nishistoun ke liye 9 riyaston masalan Bihar , jammu and Kashmir , jharkhand, madhya pradesh , maharashtra, Orissa, rajasthan, uttarpradesh, aur maghribi bengal may polling hogi.
*. 6 May ko panchween marhale may 51 nishistoun ke liye saat riyaston masalan Bihar , jammu and Kashmir , jharkhand, madhyapradesh, uttar pradesh, aur maghribi bengal may polling hogi.
*. 12 May ko Chatween marhale may 59 nishistoun ke liye saat riyaston, maslan bihar, Delhi , Haryana , jharkhand, madhyapradesh, uttar pradesh aur maghribi bengal may polling hogi.
*. 19 May ko saatween marhale may 59 nishistoun ke liye 8 riyaston, maslan bihar, chandigarh, himachal pradesh, jharkhnd, madhya pradesh, Punjab , uttar pradesh aur maghribi bengal may polling ho gi .
Is ke sath he andhra pradesh, arunachal pradesh, orissa aur silkim may ek sath assembly intekhabaat bhi munaqqid honge. taham jammu and kashmir assembly ke liye jise BJP aur PDP ke darmiyan ittehaad tootne ke baad tahleel kar diya gaya tha, un lok sabha intekhabaat ke sath polling nahi hogi. Election commissioner Sunil arora ke aelaan ke sath he intekhabi zabte ikhlaq nafiz ho gaya hai .
Ek taraf jahan mulk bhar may saat marhloun may polling hogi, waheen riyasat maghribi bengal may hi saat marhloun may polling munaqqid hogi .
Is baar ke lok sabha intekhabaat kis tarha munaqqid hon ge, aur is ke liye kiya hikmat e amli apnaee jaye gi is talluq se election commissioner Sunil arora ne tafseel se bataya. Election commissioner ne kaha ke is baar intekhabaat may 10 lakh polling stations qayam kiye jayen ge. jabke 2014 ke intekhabaat may 9 lakh polling stations qayam kiye gaye the. aur mulk bhar ki jumla 543 lok sabha nishistoun ke liye taqreeban 90 crore raye dahinde vote daalne ke ahal honge aur –apne vote ka istemaal karen ge.
Unhoun ne kaha ke social media par tamam siyasi ishtiharaat ki qabal iz waqt tasdeeq leni hogi. Sunil arora ke mutabiq pichle intekhabaat ke muqable 8 crore 34 lakh naye voters bane hai jin may Dedh crore 18 se 19 saal ki Umar ke hai.
Pichli baar 9 marhloun may intekhabaat hue the. jo 7 April ko shuru hokar 9 May ko ekhtetaam hue they. lekin is baar 7 marahil may intekhabaat ka amal mukammal karane ka faisla kiya gaya hai. uss waqt votoun ki ginti 16 May ko hui thi. is baar sabhi polling marakiz par vvpat ka istemaal kiya jaye ga. jumla 23 laakh se ziyada EVM machines , aur 17 laakh se ziyada vvpat istemaal kiye jayen ge. aur EVM machines par umidwaroun ke intekhabi nishaan aur naam ke sath un ki tasweerein bhi hon gi, take raye dahindoun ko sahoolat ho. is baar social media ke zariye intekhabi tashiri muhim ko zabta-e-ikhlaq ke daire may laya gaya hai. social media par ishtihar ka mawaad daalne se pehle Certification laazmi qarar diya gaya hai. is ke alawa intekhabi zabta-e- ikhlaq ki khilaaf warzi ki shikayat ke liye ek android mobile app bhi jari kiya jaye ga .
Election commission ki janib se saat marahil may intekhabaat ke aelaan ke baad siyasi jamaatoun ne is aelaan ka khair maqdam kiya hai. aur mukhtalif siyasi jamaatoun ke qaideen ne apni apni party ki kamyabi ki umeed zahir ki aur mukhtalif jamaatoun ko tanqeed ka nishana banaya .
Hukmuran ittehaad ne usey dobarah muntakhib karne par zor diya. jabke mukhalif jamaatoun NDA ke hukumat ko be dakhal karne ka yaqeen zahir kiya. sadar BJP Amit Shah ne apni party ke liye awam ki taiyed mangte hue kaha ke Modi hukumat ne pehli miyad may awam ki Falah wo behbood ke liye jarayet mandana faisle kiye aur apni dusri miyad may wo ek badi chalang ko yaqeeni banaye gi. taake sab khushaal ho sake. senior congress leader Ahmed pate ne daawa kiya ke aane wale intekhabaat paanch saal ki bad amni aur tabahi ke khtama aur ek naye daur ki shuruvaat ke naqeeb honge. BSP supremo Mayawati ne hukumat ko awam dushman aur sarmaya kar dost qarar diya. Narendra modi ne apne tweet may apni hukumat ki karkardagi ka taqabul congress zaire qiiyadat UPA hukumat se kiya aur kaha ke pichle paanch saal ye batate hai ke jise na mumkin samjha jata tha ab woh mumkin ho gaya hai. Congress ke sadar Rahul gandhi ne Twitter par likha ke baghal baj chuka hai. ab awam ki baari hai. hum hukumat ke jhutoun ko shikast denge aur fatah hamari hogi. Aam aadmi party ke sarbarah aur Dehli ke chief minister Arvind kejriwal ne kaha ke ab waqt agaya hai ke Narendra modi hukumat ko ukhad phenka jaye, jo hindustan ki tareekh ki sab se ziyada aamaranah aur wafaqiyat dushman hai .
Ab to intekhabi baghal baj chuka hai, siyasi jamaatoun ke darmiyan aur bhi nok jhonk hongi, tanqidoun ka bazaar garam hoga. aur har siyaasi jamaat apni party ki kamyabi ka daawa karegi. intekhabi tareekh ke aelaan ke sath hi siyasi partiyoun ki sargarmia tez ho gayi hai. sath hi yeh pesh qiyasiyan bhi kee ja rahi hai ke koun kitni nishistoun par kamyaab hoga. aur kis ki hukumat banne ke imkanaat hai.
Hukmuran ittehaad NDA kam voting feesad ke sath aksariyat haasil kare gi. magar hukumat banane may kamyiaab hogi. agar uttar pradesh may maha gath bandhan nahi ho taa hai to Narendra modi 300 lok sabha nishistoun par kamiyaab ho sakte hai. mukhtalif riyastoun may voters se IANS ki janib se karaye gaye opinion polls ke mutabiq lok sabha intekhabaat may bada hi kada muqaabla hone ke imkanaat hai .
BJP ne mahe March may Kashmir ke pulwama may hue Jaish-e-mohammed ki janib se kiye gaye hamle ke baad Pakistan ko mu tod jawab day kar apne liye awaami hamdardi ke naye raste bana liye hai. pulwama hamle ke baad modi hukumat ke iqdamaat ke baad awaami raye ko dekhte hue BJP par umeed hai ke un intekhabaat may Narendra modi aage nikal jayenge .
Opinion poll ke mutabiq NDA ko 264 nishistein haasil hongi. jabke UPA ko 141 nishistein aur deegar partiyoun ko 138 nishistein haasil hongi. agar uttar pradesh may maha gath bandhan nahi bantaa hai to NDA 307 nishistein haasil kar sakti hai. aur UPA ko mil sakti hain 139. aur deegar partiyoun ko mil satke hain 97 nishistein. *.
BJP ko khud ke dam par 220 nishistein haasil ho sakti hain. aur is ki deegar ittihadi jamaaton ko 44 nishistein milein gi. *. agar NDA ilaqai partiyoun maslan YSR congress, mizo national front ( MNF), biju janata dil ( BJD), aur Telangana Rashtra Samithi ( TRS ), se ittehaad karti hai to usey 301 nishistein haasil ho sakti hain. usi tarha UPA ki baat kare to congress ko 86 aur deegar ittihadi partiyoun ko 55 nishistein milein gi. agar UPA dusri partiyoun jaise ke all India democratic front ( AIUDF), left democratic front ( LDF ), maha gath bandhan UP , Trinamool congress ( TMC ), se ittehaad karta hai to usey 226 nishistein haasil hongi .
Uttar pradesh may BJP ki 71 seats hai. maha gath bandhan ke muqaabla may usey is baar 29 seats milne ke imkanaat hai.
BJP bihar may 36 seats haasil ho sakti hain. jabke 2014 may 22 mili thi. Gujrat may 24 seats mil sakti hai jo pichle se do kam hai. karnataka may 16 mil sakti hain jo pichlle ke muqaabla may ek kam hai. Madhya pradesh may 24, maharasthra may 36 nishistein milengi pichli baar 23 par kamiyabi mili thi. Orissa may12, aur rajasthan may 20 nishistein milein gi. usi tarha congress party 2014 ke muqaabla may is baar ziyada seats haasil kare gi. aasam may 7 nishistein jo pichli baar se teen ziyada hai. chateesgarh se 5 pehle aik thi. kerala se 14, karnataka se pichli baar ki tarha hi 9 nishistein milein gi. jharkhand se paanch, madhya pradesh se paanch, maharashtra se 7 jo pichli baar se teen ziyada hai. Punjab se 12 jo pichli baar teen the. rajasthan se paanch, aur tamil nadu se 4 nishistein milein gi jo pichli baar sifar par thi. uttar pradesh se chaar jo pehle ke muqaabla may do ziyada hai.
Ye to sirf ek awaami khayaal yani opinion poll hai. intekhabaat ke baad kis ko aksariyat haasil hoti hai, koun Iqtedaar ki kursi par Fayez hota hai. aur kis ki haar hoti hai, ye to aane wala waqt hi bataye ga. ye awam ke haath may hai ke wo jise chahe Iqtedaar saump sakte hai aur jise chahe Iqtidaar se be dakhal kar satke hai. -YTN Staff